Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions

Typically, firms decide whether or not to develop a new product based on their resources, capabilities and the return on investment that the product is estimated to generate. We propose that firms adopt a broader heuristic for making new product development choices. Our heuristic approach requires moving beyond traditional finance-based thinking, and suggests that firms concentrate on technological trajectories by combining technology roadmapping, information technology (IT) and supply chain management to make more sustainable new product development decisions. Using the proposed holistic heuristic methods, versus relying on traditional finance-based decision-making tools (e.g., emphasizing net present value or internal rate of return projections), enables firms to plan beyond the short-term and immediate set of technologies at hand. Our proposed heuristic approach enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term. Investments in new products should, as a result, generate returns over a longer period than traditionally expected, giving firms more sustainable investments. New products are costly and need to have a 0040-1625/$ – see front matter D 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00064-7 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-814-863-7133. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (I.J. Petrick), [email protected] (A.E. Echols). 1 Tel.: +1-814-863-0642. I.J. Petrick, A.E. Echols / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 81–100 82 durable presence in the market. Transaction costs and resources will be saved, as firms make new product development decisions less frequently. D 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.